Forecasting Politics

We, humans, live at a time of grave and multiple uncertainties. That has always been the case. Yes, throughout human history. No wonder since time immemorial have we invented a myriad of ways to see through them. Some, if not all, of old ways are in fact still in use. For example, wildly popular astrology. Yet, in the meantime, we also invented new ways, ways that are more rational/scientific in nature. What are they? And, how are they employed by experts, to forecast politics, domestic as well as international?

In addition to these two and related questions, the course also addresses the most basic question that concerns us: is forecasting politics even possible? It is alleged that Yoggi Berra, a legendary baseball player, once said: “It’s tough to make predictions especially about the future.” The class claims no more. It is tough, but not totally impossible. In a nutshell the course is a general introduction to social science methodology and its use in forecasting politics.